Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation.

OBJECTIVE: In 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must be blocked early. This study attempted to verify the intervention effects on the spread of an infectious disease by using these measures in a mathematical model. METHODS: We used the susceptible-infectious-recovery (SIR) model for a virtual population group connected by a special structured network. In the model, the infected state (I) was divided into I in which the infection is undetected and Ix in which the infection is detected. The probability of transitioning from an I state to Ix can be viewed as the rate at which an infected person is found. We assumed that only those connected to each other in the network can cause infection. In addition, this study attempted to evaluate the effects of isolation by temporarily removing the connection among these people. RESULTS: In Scenario 1, only the infected are isolated; in Scenario 2, those who are connected to an infected person and are also found to be infected are isolated as well. In Scenario 3, everyone connected to an infected person are isolated. In Scenario 3, it was possible to effectively suppress the infectious disease even with a relatively slow rate of diagnosis and relatively high infection rate. CONCLUSION: During the epidemic, quick identification of the infected is helpful. In addition, it was possible to quantitatively show through a simulation evaluation that the management of infected individuals as well as those who are connected greatly helped to suppress the spread of infectious diseases.

Clinical severity according to the primary infection variant in patients with suspected SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in Korea.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the severity of suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection according to variants of concern in Gyeongsangbuk-do and Daegu, Korea. METHODS: The database of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases reported from epidemiological investigations through the integrated system operated by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, from January 20, 2020 to May 7, 2022 was combined with data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service system. The severity odds ratio (SOR) in secondary infection episodes compared with primary infection was estimated using a generalized linear model with a binomial distribution. RESULTS: In all patients, the SOR of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 0.95), and the severity was lower than in the first infection. Patients who had been vaccinated within 91 days showed a more attenuated SOR (0.85; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98). However, despite vaccination, in patients with both primary and secondary infections caused by the Omicron variant, the severity was reduced to a lesser extent than in patients primarily infected with other variants. CONCLUSIONS: We could make efforts to relieve the severity of COVID-19 in vulnerable populations, in which death is more likely, by recommending booster vaccinations in case of a resurgence.

Effect of socioeconomic disparities on the risk of COVID-19 in eight metropolitan cities, the Republic of Korea: a community-based study.

Objectives: Socioeconomic disparities have been reported as the main risk factors contributing to the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at the community level. We conducted an epidemiological study on the risk of COVID-19 incidence using area deprivation indices (DIs) depending on the characteristics of the susceptible population. Methods: The database of the confirmed COVID-19 cases in eight metropolitan cities, the Republic of Korea, from January 20, 2020 to December 31, 2021, was combined with the area DIs and standardized prevalence of diabetes and hypertension from the community health survey. The relative risk (RR) was estimated using a generalized linear model with Poisson distribution by age group. Results: The risk of COVID-19 incidence increased with the increasing age group, especially in patients aged ≥75 years. The RR per interquartile range increment of total social deprivation index (total SDI) was 1.54 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.34-1.70) in the COVID-19 incidence. Especially, the risk of COVID-19 incidence in the first wave was about three times higher in the region belonging to the lowest socioeconomic status than in the region with the highest socioeconomic status. The risk was 3.08 (95% CI: 2.42 to 3.78) based on the total SDI and 3.13 (95% CI: 2.53 to 3.83) based on the social deprivation index. Conclusion: This study provides scientific evidence that socioeconomic inequity is an important risk factor for the spread of COVID-19. This finding suggests that a mid-to-long-term strategy is needed for the susceptible population to reduce the burden of COVID-19 in the community.

Viral shedding patterns of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections by periods of variant predominance and vaccination status in Gyeonggi Province, Korea.

OBJECTIVES: We compared the viral cycle threshold (Ct) values of infected patients to better understand viral kinetics by vaccination status during different periods of variant predominance in Gyeonggi Province, Korea. METHODS: We obtained case-specific data from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance system, Gyeonggi in-depth epidemiological report system, and Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service from January 2020 to January 2022. We defined periods of variant predominance and explored Ct values by analyzing viral sequencing test results. Using a generalized additive model, we performed a nonlinear regression analysis to determine viral kinetics over time. RESULTS: Cases in the Delta variant's period of predominance had higher viral shedding patterns than cases in other periods. The temporal change of viral shedding did not vary by vaccination status in the Omicron-predominant period, but viral shedding decreased in patients who had completed their third vaccination in the Delta-predominant period. During the Delta-predominant and Omicron-predominant periods, the time from symptom onset to peak viral shedding based on the E gene was approximately 2.4 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2 to 2.5) and 2.1 days (95% CI, 2.0 to 2.1), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In one-time tests conducted to diagnose COVID-19 in a large population, although no adjustment for individual characteristics was conducted, it was confirmed that viral shedding differed by the predominant strain and vaccination history. These results show the value of utilizing hundreds of thousands of test data produced at COVID-19 screening test centers.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Outbreak Without Influenza in the Second Year of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A National Sentinel Surveillance in Korea, 2021-2022 Season.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate whether respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus (IFV) infections would occur in 2021-2022 as domestic nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are easing. METHODS: Data were collected from the Korean Influenza and Respiratory Virus Monitoring System database. The weekly positivity rates of respiratory viruses and number of hospitalizations for acute respiratory infections were evaluated (January 2016-2022). The period from February 2020 to January 2022 was considered the NPI period. The autoregressive integrated moving average model and Poisson analysis were used for data analysis. Data from 14 countries/regions that reported positivity rates of RSV and IFV were also investigated. RESULTS: Compared with the pre-NPI period, the positivity and hospitalization rates for IFV infection during 2021-2022 significantly decreased to 0.0% and 1.0%, respectively, at 0.0% and 1.2% of the predicted values, respectively. The RSV infection positivity rate in 2021-2022 was 1.8-fold higher than that in the pre-NPI period at 1.5-fold the predicted value. The hospitalization rate for RSV was 20.0% of that in the pre-NPI period at 17.6% of the predicted value. The re-emergence of RSV and IFV infections during 2020-2021 was observed in 13 and 4 countries, respectively. CONCLUSION: During 2021-2022, endemic transmission of the RSV, but not IFV, was observed in Korea.

Clinical Features and Duration of Viral Shedding in Individuals With SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Infection.

We analyzed the duration of infectivity of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant by viral culture of respiratory samples collected daily from isolated patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection. The culture positivity rate of the Omicron variant was higher than that of the Delta variant within 8 days after symptom onset.

An Imported Case of Afebrile Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Infection from Tanzania in a Returning Traveler to the Republic of Korea following an Earlier COVID-19 Infection.

Malaria is well-known as one of the most common causes of fever among travelers returning from endemic areas such as tropical African countries. However, afebrile Plasmodium falciparum malaria has rarely been reported in a returning traveler with no prior history of malaria infection. Here, we report an imported case of afebrile P. falciparum malaria infection from Tanzania in a returning traveler to the Republic of Korea, following an earlier COVID-19 infection without previous history of malaria infection. Our case suggests the hypothesis that severe symptoms of P. falciparum malaria infection might be prevented by cross- immunity from previous COVID-19 infection.

Temporal Correlation Between Kawasaki Disease and Infectious Diseases in South Korea.

Importance: Infections are proposed to be triggering factors for Kawasaki disease (KD), although its etiological factors remain unknown. Recent reports have indicated a 4- to 6-week lag between SARS-CoV-2 infection and multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children with a similar presentation to that of KD. Objective: To investigate the temporal correlation between KD and viral infections, focusing on respiratory viruses. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted among individuals aged 0 to 19 years diagnosed with KD between January 2010 and September 2020 from the Korean National Health Insurance Service. Data on infectious disease outbreaks from 2016 to 2019 were collected from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, Korean Influenza and Respiratory Virus Monitoring System, Korea Enteroviruses Surveillance System, and the Enteric Pathogens Active Surveillance Network in South Korea. Data were analyzed from December 2020 to October 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: National databases for infectious diseases were used for a time-series analysis of the correlation between viral infections and KD. The temporal correlation between infectious disease outbreaks and KD outbreaks was evaluated using the Granger causality test (G-test), which is a useful tool to estimate correlations between 2 time series of diseases based on time lags. Results: Overall, 53 424 individuals with KD were identified, including 22 510 (42.1%) females and 30 914 (57.9%) males and 44 276 individuals (82.9%) younger than 5 years. Intravenous immunoglobulin-resistant KD was identified in 9042 individuals (16.9%), and coronary artery abnormalities were identified in 384 individuals (0.7%). Of 14 infectious diseases included in the analyses, rhinovirus infection outbreaks were identified as significantly correlated at 1 to 3 months before KD outbreaks in South Korea (r = 0.3; 1 month: P < .001; 2 months: P < .001; 3 months: P < .001). Outbreaks of respiratory syncytial virus infection were identified as significantly correlated with KD outbreaks by 2 months (r = 0.5; 2 months: P < .001). Additionally, varicella outbreaks were identified as significantly correlated at 2 and 3 months before KD outbreaks (r = 0.7; 2 months: P < .001; 3 months: P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study with a time series analysis of children and youth in South Korea with KD, respiratory infections caused by rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus and varicella outbreaks were significantly correlated with KD at 1 to 3 months before KD outbreaks.

Modeling the early temporal dynamics of viral load in respiratory tract specimens of COVID-19 patients in Incheon, the Republic of Korea.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the duration and peak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 shedding as infectivity markers for determining the isolation period. METHODS: A total of 2,558 upper respiratory tract (URT) and lower respiratory tract (LRT) specimens from 138 patients with laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease were analyzed. Measurements of sequential viral loads were aggregated using the cubic spline smoothing function of a generalized additive model. The time to negative conversion was compared between symptom groups using survival analysis. RESULTS: In URT samples, viral RNA levels peaked on day 4 after symptom onset and rapidly decreased until day 10 for both E and RdRp genes, whereas those in LRT samples immediately peaked from symptom onset and decreased until days 15.6 and 15.0 for E and RdRp genes, respectively. Median (interquartile range) time to negative conversion was significantly longer in symptomatic (18.0 [13.0-25.0] days) patients than in asymptomatic (13.0 [9.5-17.5] days) patients. The more types of symptoms a patient had, the longer the time to negative conversion. CONCLUSIONS: The viral load rapidly changes depending on the time after symptom onset; the viral shedding period may be longer with more clinical symptoms. Different isolation policies should be applied depending on disease severity.

Respiratory syncytial virus and influenza epidemics disappearance in Korea during the 2020-2021 season of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduce winter-prevalent respiratory viral infections represented by a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus (IFV) during the winter in Korea. METHODS: The Korean Influenza and Respiratory Virus Monitoring System database was used. From January 2016 through January 2021, the weekly positivity of respiratory viruses and the weekly number of hospitalizations with acute respiratory infections were collected. The NPI period was defined as February 2020-January 2021. We analyzed whether hospitalization and sample positivity by respiratory viruses changed after NPIs. Bayesian structural time-series models and Poisson analyses were used. Data from other countries/regions reporting positive rates of RSV and IFV were also investigated. RESULTS: Compared with the pre-NPI period, the positive rates of RSV and IFV decreased significantly to 19% and 6%, and 23% and 6% of the predicted value. Also, hospitalization significantly decreased to 9% and 8%, and 10% and 5% of the predicted value. The positive rates of IFV in 14 countries during the NPI period were almost 0, whereas sporadic outbreaks of RSV occurred in some countries. CONCLUSIONS: No RSV and IFV winter epidemics were observed during the 2020-2021 season in Korea.

Impact of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on the Incidence of Respiratory Infections During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in Korea: A Nationwide Surveillance Study.

BACKGROUND: Many countries have implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to determine whether NPIs led to the decline in the incidences of respiratory infections. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, ecological study using a nationwide notifiable diseases database and a respiratory virus sample surveillance collected from January 2016 through July 2020 in the Republic of Korea. Intervention period was defined as February-July 2020, when the government implemented NPIs nationwide. Observed incidences in the intervention period were compared with the predicted incidences by an autoregressive integrated moving average model and the 4-year mean cumulative incidences (CuIs) in the same months of the preintervention period. RESULTS: Five infectious diseases met the inclusion criteria: chickenpox, mumps, invasive pneumococcal disease, scarlet fever, and pertussis. The incidences of chickenpox and mumps during the intervention period were significantly lower than the prediction model. The CuIs (95% confidence interval) of chickenpox and mumps were 36.4% (23.9-76.3%) and 63.4% (48.0-93.3%) of the predicted values. Subgroup analysis showed that the decrease in the incidence was universal for chickenpox, while mumps showed a marginal reduction among those aged <18 years, but not in adults. The incidence of respiratory viruses was significantly lower than both the predicted incidence (19.5%; 95% confidence interval, 11.8-55.4%) and the 4-year mean CuIs in the preintervention period (24.5%; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of NPIs was associated with a significant reduction in the incidences of several respiratory infections in Korea.

Decrease in hospital admissions for respiratory diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide claims study.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been widely implemented to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. We assessed the effect of NPIs on hospitalisations for pneumonia, influenza, COPD and asthma. This retrospective, ecological study compared the weekly incidence of hospitalisation for four respiratory conditions before (January 2016-January 2020) and during (February-July 2020) the implementation of NPI against COVID-19. Hospitalisations for all four respiratory conditions decreased substantially during the intervention period. The cumulative incidence of admissions for COPD and asthma was 58% and 48% of the mean incidence during the 4 preceding years, respectively.

The role of smart monitoring digital health care system based on smartphone application and personal health record platform for patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: The massive outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Daegu city and Gyeongsangbuk-do, Republic of Korea (ROK), caused the exponential increase in new cases exceeding 5000 within 6 weeks. Therefore, the community treatment center (CTC) with a digital health care monitoring system based on the smartphone application and personal health record platform (PHR) was implemented. Thus, we report our experience in one of the CTCs to investigate the role of CTC and the feasibility of the digital health care monitoring system in the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: The Gyeongbuk-Daegu 2 CTC was set up at the private residential facility. Admission criteria were 1) patients < 65 years with COVID-19, 2) patients without underlying medical comorbidities, and 3) COVID-19 disease severity of mild class. Admitted patients were placed under monitoring of vital signs and symptoms. Clinical information was collected using the smartphone application or telephone communication. Collected information was displayed on the PHR platform in a real-time fashion for close monitoring. RESULTS: From Mar 3, 2020, to Mar 26, 2020, there was a total of 290 patients admitted to the facility. Males were 104 (35.9%). The median age was 37 years. The median time between the COVID-19 diagnosis and admission was 7 days. Five patients were identified and were transferred to the designed COVID-19 treatment hospital for their urgent medical needs. The smartphone application usage to report vital signs and symptoms was noted in 96% of the patients. There were no deaths of the patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that implementation of the CTC using a commercial residence facility and digital health care technology may offer valuable solutions to the challenges posed by the COVID-19 outbreak.

Population Response to Air Pollution and the Risk of Coronavirus Disease in Chinese Cities during the Early Pandemic Period.

Health behavior is a critical measure in controlling the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We estimated the effect of health behaviors against air pollution on reducing the risk of COVID-19 during the initial phase of the pandemic. The attack rates of COVID-19 in 159 mainland Chinese cities during the first 2 weeks after the closure of major cities was estimated; air pollution level as a surrogate indicator of the mask-wearing rate. Data on air pollution levels and meteorologic factors 2 weeks prior to the closure were obtained. The attack rate was compared with the level of air pollution using a generalized linear model after adjusting for confounders. When fine particulates (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) levels increased by one unit of air quality index (AQI), the infection risk decreased by 0.7% and 3.4%, respectively. When PM2.5 levels exceeded 150 (level 4), the infection risk decreased (relative risk, RR = 0.635, 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.442 to 0.912 for level 4; RR = 0.529, 95% CI: 0.337 to 0.830 for level 5; respectively). After controlling for the number of high-speed railway routes, when PM2.5 and NO2 levels increased by one AQI, relative risk for PM2.5 and NO2 was 0.990 (95% CI, 0.984 to 0.997) and 0.946 (95% CI, 0.911 to 0.982), respectively, demonstrating a consistently negative association. It is postulated that, during the early phase of the pandemic, the cities with higher air pollution levels may represent the higher practice of mask-wearing to protect from air pollution, which could have acted as a barrier to the transmission of the virus. This study highlights the importance of health behaviors, including mask-wearing for preventing infections.

Compliance of Antihypertensive Medication and Risk of Coronavirus Disease 2019: a Cohort Study Using Big Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service.

BACKGROUND: There is a controversy whether it is safe to continue renin-angiotensin system blockers in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We analyzed big data to investigate whether angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and/or angiotensin II receptor blockers have any significant effect on the risk of COVID-19. Population-based cohort study was conducted based on the prescription data from nationwide health insurance records. METHODS: We investigated the 1,374,381 residents aged ≥ 40 years living in Daegu, the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak, between February and March 2020. Prescriptions of antihypertensive medication during the year before the outbreak were extracted from the National Health Insurance Service registry. Medications were categorized by types and stratified by the medication possession ratios (MPRs) of antihypertensive medications after controlling for the potential confounders. The risk of COVID-19 was estimated using a difference in difference analysis. RESULTS: Females, older individuals, low-income earners, and recently hospitalized patients had a higher risk of infection. Patients with higher MPRs of antihypertensive medications had a consistently lower risk of COVID-19 than those with lower MPRs of antihypertensive medications and non-users. Among patients who showed complete compliance, there was a significantly lower risk of COVID-19 for those prescribed angiotensin II receptor blockers (relative risk [RR], 0.751; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.587-0.960) or calcium channel blockers (RR, 0.768; 95% CI, 0.601-0.980). CONCLUSION: Renin-angiotensin system blockers or other antihypertensive medications do not increase the risk of COVID-19. Patients should not stop antihypertensive medications, including renin-angiotensin system blockers, because of concerns of COVID-19.

Spatial epidemic dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

BACKGROUND: On 31 December 2019 an outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China, was reported. The outbreak spread rapidly to other Chinese cities and multiple countries. This study described the spatio-temporal pattern and measured the spatial association of the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China from 16 January-06 February 2020. METHODS: This study explored the spatial epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in mainland China. Moran's I spatial statistic with various definitions of neighbours was used to conduct a test to determine whether a spatial association of the COVID-19 infections existed. RESULTS: The spatial spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in China was observed. The results showed that most of the models, except medical-care-based connection models, indicated a significant spatial association of COVID-19 infections from around 22 January 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Spatial analysis is of great help in understanding the spread of infectious diseases, and spatial association was the key to the spatial spread during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China.